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International Merchandise Trade

International Merchandise Trade 2025 — Quarter 1

Released Reference period: 2025 Economy

Trade Performance

Papua New Guinea’s trade performance in Q1 2025 showed a significant improvement compared to Q4 2024.

Exports: Exports experienced a 6.0% growth, rising from K14.4 billion in Q4 2024 to K15.3 billion in Q1 2025, an increase of K0.9 billion.

Imports: Imports decreased by 11.0%, from K7.0 billion in Q4 2024 to K6.2 billion in Q1 2025, resulting in a reduction of K0.8 billion.

Balance of Trade: The balance of trade increased by 22.0%, from K7.4 billion in Q4 2024 to K9.1 billion in Q1 2025, marking a surplus of K1.6 billion.

The improved balance of trade in Q1 2025 was primarily driven by a combination of increased exports and a notable decrease in imports, indicating a healthier trade position for PNG.

Table 1: Balance of Trade in Q1 2025

Top Export Commodities

Key Observations by Commodities:
  • LNG: As the largest export by value, experienced a decrease from K5.6 billion in Q4 2024 to K5.3 billion in Q1 2025. This represents a minor reduction of approximately 5.4%, but its scale means it still heavily influences overall PNG export.
  • Gold: Exports showed impressive growth, increasing from K3.3 billion in Q4 2024 to K4.4 billion in Q1 2025. This substantial rise of approximately 33.3% positions gold as a major positive contributor to PNG’s export earnings.
  • Copper ores and concentrates: This mineral export saw a slight dip from K1.62 billion to K1.59 billion, a relatively minor change of approximately 1.9%.
  • Palm oil: Exports surged significantly, rising from K540 million in Q4 2024 to K910 million in Q1 2025. This substantial increase of approximately 68.5% highlights strong performance in the agricultural sector.
  • Fish, fresh or chilled: This category showed remarkable growth, more than doubling its value from K270 million in Q4 2024 to K580 million in Q1 2025. This represents an increase of approximately 114.8%.
  • Cocoa Beans: Exports saw a healthy increase from K280 million in Q4 2024 to K320 million in Q1 2025. This is an increase of approximately 14.3%.
  • Fish, frozen: Exports also had a modest rise from K280 million to K310 million. This is an increase of approximately 10.7%.
  • Prepared or preserved fish: This commodity remained stable, maintaining a value of K240 million in both quarters. This represents a 0% change.
  • Timber logs and poles inc Special Wood: Exports in this category slightly increased from K190 million to K200 million. This is an increase of approximately 5.3%.
  • Coconut (copra) oil and palm kernel oil: This commodity saw a healthy increase from K110 million to K160 million. This is an increase of approximately 45.5%.
  • Coffee Beans: Exports faced a decline from K170 million to K130 million. This is a decrease of approximately 23.5%.

Despite a slight downturn in Liquefied Natural Gas, PNG’s export performance in Q1 2025 was bolstered by significant growth in gold and impressive increases across several agricultural and fisheries products.

The increased values in commodities like palm oil, fresh fish, and Cocoa, now clearly visible in millions of Kina, underscore a positive trend towards diversification and resilience in PNG’s export economy.

Table 2: Top Commodities

Top Import Commodities

Key Observations and Analysis:
  • Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals: Remains the largest import commodity experienced a significant 23.9% increase (K238 million) from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025. It accounts for a substantial 20% of the total import market share in Q1 2025, indicating a rising demand and higher prices for energy.
  • Wheat and meslin: Saw the most drastic decline, plummeting by 67.7% (K201 million).
  • Rice: Imports also fell significantly by 32.7% (K104 million).
  • Food preparations not elsewhere specified or included: Decreased by 14.9% (K17 million).
    • These considerable drops in key foodstuff imports may be due to adjustment to valuation of Kina in Q1 2025 or increased domestic productions such as rice or shift in consumer preferences.
  • Imports of “Motor vehicles for the transport of goods”: Saw a sharp decrease of 42.7% (K125 million).
  • Machinery parts: Also fell by 31.2% (K76 million).
  • Self-propelled bulldozers, angledozers, graders, levellers, scrapers: Imports decreased by 33.6% (K47 million).
    • There is a mixed trends in Machinery and Vehicles: These declines might indicate a slowdown in new commercial vehicle acquisition, or a completion of major construction/development projects.
  • Conversely, “Vehicles; public transport passenger type”: Showed a substantial increase of 59.3% (K35 million).
  • “Parts and accessories of the motor vehicles”: Also increased by 8.9% (K11 million), which could indicate ongoing maintenance for existing vehicle fleets.
  • Telecommunications Dip: “Telephone sets, including telephones for cellular networks”: Experienced a 15.5% decrease (K17 million), potentially reflecting a saturation in the market or a slower upgrade cycle.

Table 3: Top 10 Import Commodities in Kina Millions

Overall Summary:

  • The Q4 2024 to Q1 2025 import data for PNG shows a strong increase in petroleum imports, cementing its position as the country’s primary largest commodity import.
  • Conversely, there were significant reductions across several other major categories, notably food items like wheat and rice, and various types of machinery and commercial vehicles.
  • This suggests a shifting import landscape, potentially influenced by domestic production, project cycles, or global market dynamics.
  • The rise in public transport vehicle imports points towards specific investment areas.
  • The high dependence on petroleum imports remains a key characteristic of PNG’s import profile.

Export by Standard International Trade Classification

Key Trends:

  • PNG’s largest export sector, Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials, experienced a slight decrease of 4%, falling from K6.3 billion in Q4 2024 to K6.0 billion in Q1 2025 (a decrease of K0.3 billion). This sector remains the largest export category by a significant margin.
  • The Manufactured goods classified chiefly by material sector showed a healthy increase of 16%, growing from K2.7 billion to K3.2 billion (an increase of K0.4 billion). This positive trend suggests potential growth in PNG’s capacity to export processed materials.
  • The Crude materials, inedible, except fuels sector experienced a modest increase of 6%, rising from K2.5 billion to K2.7 billion (an increase of K0.2 billion).
  • The Food and live animals sector demonstrated substantial growth, increasing by 25% from K1.3 billion to K1.6 billion (an increase of K0.3 billion). This highlights a strong performance in the export of agricultural and livestock products.
  • The Animal and vegetable oils, fats and waxes category saw the most significant percentage increase, rising by 65% from K0.7 billion to K1.1 billion (an increase of K0.4 billion).
  • The Machinery and transport equipment sector decreased from K0.5 billion to K0.1 billion.
  • The remaining categories, including Miscellaneous manufactured articles, Chemicals and related products, not elsewhere specified, and Beverages and tobacco, remained stable with no change in export values between the two quarters.

Table 4: Exports by SITC Categories for Q4 2024 – Q1 2025 (Kina Billions)

Imports by Standard International Trade Classification

Key Trends:

  • Imports of Machinery and transport equipment decreased by 12.7% from K2.4 billion to K2.1 billion in Q1 2025.
  • Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials increased 22.9% from K1.0 billion to K1.3 billion in Q1 2025.
  • Imports of Food and live animals decreased significantly by 31.7% from K1.4 billion to K0.9 billion in Q1 2025.
  • Manufactured goods classified chiefly by material decreased slightly by 9.1% from K1.0 billion to K0.9 billion in Q1 2025.
  • Imports of Chemicals and related products remained relatively stable at around K0.5 billion (-1.1%).
  • Miscellaneous manufactured articles decreased from about K0.5 billion to K0.4 billion (-22.5%).
  • Crude materials, inedible, except fuels decreased from K0.1 billion to K0.05 billion (-44.1%).
  • Beverages and tobacco decreased from K0.05 billion to K0.04 billion (-5.6%).
  • Animal and vegetable oils, fats and waxes decreased from about K0.05 billion to K0.04 billion (-18.0%).
  • Commodities and transactions not classified elsewhere saw a notable increase from about K0.01 billion to K0.02 billion (up 90.4%), but the overall value remains small.

Table 5: Imports by SITC Categories for Q4 2024 – Q1 2025 (Kina Billions)

Top 10 Export Destination

Ranks of countries by the value of exports from PNG

  • Japan: With an export value of K3.65 billion, Japan is by far the largest export destination for PNG in Q1 2025, driven by LNG export.
  • Australia: Closely following Japan, Australia is the second-largest destination with K3.64 billion in exports driven by Gold export. Australia is a significant trading partner.
  • China: China ranks third with K1.7 billion. While still a major destination, there’s a noticeable drop in export value compared to Japan and Australia.
  • Republic of China (Taiwan): Is the fourth-largest destination, with exports valued at K1.69 billion driven by LNG export.
  • Republic of Korea (South Korea): Comes in fifth, with exports totaling K1.12 billion driven by LNG Export.
  • Singapore: Is the sixth-largest export destination, with a value of K471 million.
  • Malaysia: Ranks seventh, with exports from PNG amounting to K379 million.
  • Philippines: Is the eighth-largest destination, receiving K310 million in exports from PNG.
  • Great Britain (United Kingdom): Is ninth on the list, with exports valued at K251 million.
  • India: Rounds out the top 10, with exports from PNG reaching K225 million.

Table 6: Top 10 Exporting Countries

Top 10 Importing Countries

  • Australia: PNG’s largest source of imports by a significant margin, with K2 billion worth of goods and PNG’s primary supplier of various commodities.
  • Singapore: Is the second-top country from which PNG imports, valued at K1.4 billion. PNG imports mostly refined petroleum products and machinery.
  • China: Is third most significant import partner for PNG, contributing K1.1 billion worth of imports. PNG import broad range of Chinese manufactured goods and other products catering to consumer and industrial demands.
  • Malaysia: PNG imports from Malaysia totaling K420 million include imports of raw materials and manufactured goods.
  • Indonesia: Provides K280 million worth of imports to PNG. Imports includes a mix of agricultural products, food items, and other goods.
  • Japan: Is also a notable import partner, with PNG bringing in K280 million worth of goods. This suggests imports of high-value items such as vehicles, machinery, or electronics from Japan.
  • Thailand: PNG imports K220 million from Thailand including foodstuffs and textiles.
  • New Zealand: Supplies PNG with K140 million in imports including agricultural products, dairy, or specialized machinery.
  • Republic of Korea: Provide K100 million worth of imports to PNG including electronics, vehicles and industrial equipment.

Table 7: Top 10 Importing Countries

Summary of Major Trading Partners

  • Australia: Is PNG’s most prominent trade partner. In Q1 2025, PNG exported K3.6 billion worth of goods to Australia and imported K2.0 billion worth of goods from Australia. This results in a favorable balance of trade surplus for PNG amounting to K1.6 billion.
  • Japan: Stands out as a major export market for PNG LNG. PNG Exports K3.7 billion worth of goods to Japan and imported K0.3 billion worth of goods from Japan. This resulting in a positive balance of trade at K3.4 billion for PNG.
  • China: PNG exported K1.7 billion worth of goods in Q1 2025, while importing K1.1 billion from China. This indicates a strong two-way trade, with PNG maintaining a healthy trade surplus of K0.6 billion.
  • Republic of Korea: PNG’s exports K1.1 billion worth of goods driven by LNG and imports K0.1 billion worth of goods from South Korea. This results in a substantial trade surplus K1.0 billion for PNG.
  • Singapore: The trade dynamics with Singapore show a different pattern. PNG exported K0.5 billion to Singapore but imported a much higher value of K1.4 billion. This leads to a trade deficit for PNG at -K0.9 billion.
  • Malaysia: PNG exported K0.4 billion to Malaysia, while importing K0.4 billion worth of goods from them. This indicates a relatively balanced trade relationship, though with a slight trade deficit for PNG at -K0.04 billion.

Conclusion

  • In summary, Papua New Guinea’s trade landscape in Q1 2025 is clearly anchored in the Asia-Pacific region.
  • PNG generally maintains robust trade surpluses with our major export destinations like Japan, Australia, China, and the Republic of Korea, largely driven by our commodity exports.
  • Conversely, PNG incurs deficits with key import sources such as Singapore and, to a lesser extent, Malaysia.
  • This overall pattern showcases PNG as a significant exporter of resources while also relying on our regional partners for essential imported goods.